Jean-Michel Basquiat Market Watch 2023

Our value index blends public auction data and private sales data from our Trading Floor network. Our market value index uses artwork & artist data and a Repeat-Sales Regression (RSR) approach. Using the sale price of individual prints to estimate the fluctuations in the value of an average representative print over a unique period of time.

Our algorithm tracks over 48,500 auction histories & our own private sales data across 3,500 artworks spanning 30 years, including signed, unsigned, APs, PPs, TPs and sets of prints & editions.

We use several metrics when comparing artists:

1. Market Size: the total value in sales in £GBP over a given period.
2. Transaction Volume: the total number of sales over a given period
3. Average Sales Price (ASP): the average price of a sale over a given period.
4. Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR): a measurement used to smoothen the annual growth rate over a given period.
5. Year-on-Year (YoY): a direct comparison between the latest and previous years.

Print Market: Quarterly Sales Analysis

An analytical examination of Basquiat’s print market from a quarterly perspective reveals a consistent pattern of robust sales turnover performances that characteristically align with the transaction volume.

Quarter 4 demonstrated the strongest comprehensive quarterly performance in sales turnover and transaction volume over the five-year period, achieving 6.5 million (£GBP) by 44 works. The second-highest performance is Quarter 2, which generated 2.7 million (£GBP) through selling 28 works. Quarters 1 and 3 performed as expected, where supply meets demand as the lower amount of work by transaction volume produces a lower overall turnover, comparatively.

When examining the quarterly data, we observe a consistent year-on-year (YoY) pattern without significant disruptions. There are noticeable fluctuations on a quarterly basis, particularly in terms of sales turnover. However, these fluctuations primarily reflect the distribution of artworks and the inclusion of high-value works during specific quarters rather than indicating negative or concerning factors. Notably, Quarters 2 and 4 coincide with the auction houses’ marquee sales events, where high-quality Basquiat works are often featured.

Nevertheless, it’s important to note that alternative options exist beyond auction houses if one intends to acquire or sell a Basquiat artwork. The advent of online selling platforms has introduced a new level of accessibility and convenience, allowing potential buyers and sellers to explore opportunities outside peak auction seasons and see where the opportunity lies in the current market. This means that fluctuations in sales performance throughout the year can serve as favourable indicators for determining the optimal timing to sell your artwork. Platforms like MyArtBroker offer valuable assistance throughout the selling process, helping you comprehend market fluctuations and providing guidance to ensure the best possible outcome for your sale.

Print Market: Total Sales Analysis

The yearly analysis of Basquiat’s print market turnover unveils varying YoY performances. Notably, 2018, 2020, and 2022 emerge as the most successful, showcasing consecutive positive growth rates.

In particular, 2020 witnessed a 34% surge in sales turnover compared to 2018, while 2022 experienced a modest 2% increase over 2020. It is worth mentioning that these high-performing years were characterised by relatively lower transaction volumes, contrasting with the higher volume output observed in 2019 and 2021, which coincided with lower sales turnover.

Basquiat’s 2023 year-to-date (YTD) print performance has seen seven successful market sales, generating an impressive £261,882. Suppose two rare prints valued at seven figures enter the market in the remaining quarters of the 2023 auction year. In which case, Basquiat’s print market trajectory would likely sustain its strong position in terms of total sales, continuing the upward trend seen in 2022.

Also worth noting is that in the prints and multiples segment, significant increases in value are typically associated with the sale of sets, where the entire collection, or series, is sold as one unit at a higher price than individual works. However, Basquiat’s market surges are primarily driven by individual sales, particularly the sale of an Untitled (1983) screenprint, which achieved seven-figure prices in 2018, 2020, and 2022. These specific years stand out as having the highest YoY sales values.

One possible explanation for these fluctuations is that when rare and high-quality works enter the market in smaller numbers, collectors and investors demonstrate a willingness to spend significantly, resulting in elevated ASPs. The surges indicate that acquiring a Basquiat work as a long-term investment will often yield the highest returns when strategically offered on the market. This is further supported by a healthy CAGR of the average selling price, which calculates to nearly 23% over the five-year period for Basquiat prints, which has the capacity to result in returns of £150,000+ for the right print in good condition.

Paintings Market: Quarterly Sales Analysis

Basquiat’s quarterly sales performance in the paintings market demonstrates a stable correlation between total sales turnover and transaction volume.

Similar to Basquiat’s print market, Quarters 2 and 4 emerge as the most successful periods, with impressive, comprehensive five-year turnover figures of 520 million (£GBP) and 294 million (£GBP), respectively. This parallel can be attributed to a seemingly key characteristic of Basquiat’s paintings and print market alike, namely the influx of high-calibre works that command substantial prices, driving the surges observed in these quarters. As previously mentioned, this phenomenon could also be explained by strategic consignment scheduling by auction houses or collectors possessing a keen understanding of opportune moments to sell. Regardless, these well-patterned performances contribute to Basquiat's market's overall robustness and stability.

Paintings Market: Total Sales Analysis

Basquiat’s paintings market experienced a notable resurgence in 2021, driven by the sale of Basquiat’s third highest-selling work, In This Case (1983), which achieved an impressive price of 65.7 million (£GBP) (including fees) at Christie’s in May. This pivotal event catalysed the market’s revival following an average -34% YoY decline from 2017 to 2020. This sale lead to a substantial increase in the value of individual works driving the ASP from 3.2 million (£GBP) to 12.4 million (£GBP).

The attention garnered by this prolific sale carried over to the following year, as 2022 exhibited a nearly 0% YoY change in the ASP. Despite a lower sales turnover, the high ASP in 2022 reflects the demand for rare and high-priced works.

It is important to note that the paintings market offers significant opportunities for investors with the financial capacity to invest and hold onto their purchases for an extended period. With an average selling price CAGR of nearly 13%, creating the potential for healthy returns on individual works. However, as mentioned throughout this report, it is crucial to emphasise that the price distribution of Basquiat’s market is heavily influenced by rare and high-value works. The calculation of high average selling price CAGR percentages and the realisation of profitable returns typically occur over a considerable period of appreciating value, further highlighting the significance and contribution of these pieces in the market dynamics.

Basquiat's Summer Exhibitions and Auction Sale Success

Basquiat’s enduring international presence has caught the attention of art enthusiasts and experts alike, as he kicked off 2023 with two highly acclaimed exhibitions. In collaboration with the renowned Andy Warhol, the notable show is being held at the Foundation Louis Vuitton in Paris and will continue throughout the summer. Additionally, Basquiat’s family, who manage his estate, has curated an exceptional collection of over 200 previously unseen works in Downtown Los Angeles, California.

The first half of 2023 witnessed a remarkable surge of Basquiat’s works entering the secondary market. The April Phillips sale, featuring editions and works on paper, presented eight pieces, each surpassing its high estimate. Notably, four were anatomy works, making their inaugural appearance at auction.

The much-discussed ”Battle of the Basquiats’’ occurred during the May evening sales at Christie’s and Sotheby’s in New York, garnering significant attention. Christie’s offering, El Gran Espectaculo (The Nile) (1983), achieved a remarkable price of 67 million USD (including fees), while Sotheby’s sale of Nows the Time (1985) realised 28.6 million USD (including fees). These two works were among several other high-performing Basquiat pieces featured during the evening auctions.

Provenance and Single-Owner Collections

The appearance of Basquiat’s works has undeniably generated a tremendous buzz within the art world. The provenance of these pieces adds an extra layer of intrigue, as many of them are fresh to the market, emerging from previously undisclosed private collections. It brings to mind the notable Paul G. Allen sale in 2022, which undoubtedly contributed to the performance of individual artists' markets in 2022, serving as a notable example. Interestingly,
a Basquiat work was not offered in this monumental sale, which could arguably explain a relatively quieter market performance in 2022.

However, amidst this backdrop, The Mo Ostin collection offered this year at Sotheby’s in May managed to unveil a fresh-to-the-market Basquiat work titled Moon View (1984), which achieved an impressive price of 10.8 million USD (including fees). It underscores the significance of works with a new provenance entering the market and how enticing they are to collectors and investors.

Furthermore, it is intriguing that only a limited number of works carry a direct provenance from Basquiat’s estate. With auction houses actively acquiring single-owner collections and the recent attention surrounding Basquiat’s estate-held exhibition in the United States, there is a distinct possibility that works with a fresh provenance will continue to emerge in the market from both these resources. This raises questions about their potential impact on the overall market dynamics and the reception they will receive from eager art enthusiasts and discerning collectors.

Basquiat at Art Basel 2023 and The Foundation Beyler

Exciting news surrounds Basquiat as he continues to make waves in the art world! Despite his already prominent presence in the recent May auctions and early Spring exhibitions, all eyes are now on the highly anticipated Art Basel 2023, starting this week from Thursday, 15 of June, through Sunday, the 18th. Basquiat takes centre stage once again, igniting two captivating discussions that have sparked even more excitement surrounding his market.

According to The Art Newspaper, there are rumours that Jeffrey Deitch will offer a rare Basquiat portrait titled Valentine (1983-84), depicting the artist and his girlfriend, Paige Powell. This remarkable artwork, gifted to Powell by Basquiat himself, has been held in her possession since its unveiling. Although the price estimate remains undisclosed, we will be eagerly anticipating the sale of this extraordinary piece.

In addition, The Art Newspaper reports that coinciding with the fair, The Foundation Beyler will present ”Basquiat: The Modena Paintings,’’ an exhibition running until the 27th of August. This highly anticipated showcase promises to be spectacular, as it reunites eight large-scale canvases currently held in international private collections.

With the prints and paintings market historically aligned, we eagerly await to witness the cyclical effects of these remarkable events on the remaining quarters of Basquiat's market. The buzz surrounding these developments is palpable, and we can't wait to see how they further shape Basquiat's enduring artistic legacy.

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